As the first presidential term for US President Donald J Trump ends, a paramount question arises: Who will win the upcoming 2020 election? Will it be Donald Trump again, being selected for a second term, or will it be a Democrat? To get a brief idea of the correct answer, we need to look at statistics. One interesting statistic I would like to present is that even with his massive unpopularity with leftist media sources such as CNN and MSNBC, Trump still enjoys more than a 50% satisfaction rating (higher than Obama when he got re-elected for a second term). This is a vast improvement from his initial satisfaction rating of only 38%. This tells us that Trump has a relatively high chance of getting re-elected.
The frontrunners of the Democrats have will be Joe Biden (Obama's vice president) and Bernie Sanders (The socialist senator from Vermont). Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris also seem to be growing in popularity. Andrew Yang has managed to earn the liking and vote of the millennials and the internet savvy.
To understand the motives of the Democrats, we need to take a closer look at their primaries. Is it to improve the nation or to defeat Trump? In my opinion, they focused on defeating Trump in the election rather than the policies they propose. By doing this they worsened the political divide in America and didn't gain any new votes in the process.
I believe, Trump is a ticking time bomb, on the verge of sabotaging his own campaign by saying something controversial.
Let's talk about the most important factor, swing states. For those of you who don't know, American governance is not based upon a national popular vote, it is based upon the electoral college system. This means that the President represents the states not the people. In such an election system, certain states, who are equally divided between the 2 opposing parties, can be won by either of the 2 parties, depending upon the vote of the independents.
In 2016, the Trump campaign very strategically focused on these states to win the election, winning a lot of swing states such as Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2020, this strategic targeting of swing states may be the most important determinant in winning the election.
In conclusion, the 2020 election seems to be an easy win for Trump, whose popularity has been on the rise since 2016. It is clear to us that no matter how many controversial statements he makes, his popularity is unstirred, however, every system has a tipping point and the Trump administration could be on the verge of collapsing.